Kimmy Calls It

A Guest Writer helps out a Commissioner still recovering from the Oktoberfest. The Commissioner is still hungover from 5 days at the Oktoberfest and his creative juices are dried up and his mind is blank. To fill the void, a DelFL Owner who wants to remain anonymous steps in and gives the league some gambling advice, the following is unedited:

It was 1995 and the Atlanta Braves were red hot, like Kirby circa 2005 at the county fair eating a corndog (not a euphemism unless you want it to be). They had a crazy lineup with the “Crime Dog” Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, David Justice (Young David Justice, not Moneyball gettin all pissed at paying for Oakland coca-cola David Justice), up and coming rookie Chipper Jones and an absolute dirt rotation with Tom Glavine, Greg “The Professor” Maddox, and Johnny “The Rocket” Schmoltz. I was at a Brave’s game copping a gold tomahawk chain from the concession stand. I was walking back and the Braves were at bat and I yelled to my mom who was 20 ft away, “Who is at bat?”. She yelled back, “Kimberly Toast’. The 3 rows between us all were cracking up. The next pitch Chipper Jones (who she called Kimberly Toast) went yard. We all went nuts. The next time Chipper Jones came up to bat the group of us were joking about the ‘Kimberly Toast’ comment, and he went deep again! Ever since then Kimberly Toast has been my good luck sports alias. So I bring to you ‘Kimmy Calls It’ my new betting newsletter.

How do we do this?: I will give you single game picks each week using betMGM.com lines (the amount of games vary on how confident I feel, I wont give you picks just to give them). What do we bet? I will give my ‘units’ for each bet. This is a scalable amount you can choose for yourself. I will use “units 1-5”. A unit for you can be $1, $10, $20, $1000 whatever you want… I will base my accuracy and amounts by my ‘units’. Let’s get it. One thing to know about me I don’t handicap bets and usually if I smell a dog I bet on the dog money line.

NFL Week 5:

I don’t like to bet too early in the season as there is too much variability. But, week 5 “They are who we thought they were” (Dennis Green) but let’s not let them off the hook. Let’s cash in $!

Overview:

Thursday Night Football:

Colts @ Broncos Broncos -3.5

Both teams missing their #1 RB but obviously this impacts the Colts more than Broncos. I think this gives the Broncos an advantage on both sides of the ball. Matt Ryan had a big game but that was the Texans and this Bronco D is the no-fly zone version for mile high. Russ doesn’t go off but does more than enough to hold off this inept Colts offense. High altitude on a short week these Colts will realize this altitude hits different especially on a short week.

Broncos -3 (4 units) 4 to win 3.48

Sunday 1 pm slate:

Bears @ Vikings Vikings –7.0

If you are Sean, you have watched way too many plays from the Bears. This is a tale of two teams looking to do something different and breathe new life into their team. For the Vikings they have what many thought would be a brand new ‘Rams Style’ offense and unleash havoc on the world. For the Bears we would just like to see them pass the ball.

Vikings -7 (5 units) 5 to win 4.55

Dolphins @ Jets Dolphins-3

Tua is out and Wilson is in… advantage Dolphins in my book. I think the Jets have some skill players but don’t have the key (Wilson) to unlock them while Teddy Two Hands has been a competent backup. It’s not like Tua had to make crazy throws to let Hill or Waddle go yard ala Kimberly Toast at Turner Field. I don’t see much of a downgrade at all for Miami other than maybe they try and run more. These are two teams #29 and #28 running the ball and only one team I trust to be able to throw it. Let’s go Fins…

Dolphins -3 (3 units) 3 to win 2.49

Texans @ Jaguars

Man, I think Del and Giorgio’s favorite team is for real. Everyone is hyped about the Eagles but if Long Locks Lawrence doesn’t lose 4 fumbles they win this game easy and enter this week with a totally different story. Their defense is really underrated. They only gave up 29 to the Eagles on 3 short fields. This is my Kimmy Toast Lock of the Week! Texans suck only good in garbage time or vs the Colts.

Jaguars -7 (5 units) 5 to win 4.35

Eagles @ Arizona

Are the Eagles even that good? They haven’t really played anyone… their defense won them the game vs Jaguars. They have scored a NFL record 2nd quarter points through 4 games… but always disappear in the 2nd half. Hot Take *If their defense didn’t play well vs the Jaguars and a break the other way week one they lose to the Lions this team could be a very mediocre 2-2 team. Sure, this team has solid units on both sides but neither have clicked at the same time. I think Kliff and Kyler start clicking and put this Eagles team in a bind. They will attack the middle of the field and force Jalen Hurts to expose himself for the developmental qb that he is (vs the finished product some are saying).

Arizona ML (3 units) 3 to win 5.55

Bengals @ Ravens

The Ravens are relying too much on Lamar and it has been costing them. That is why they lost. The Bengals were in the Super Bowl last year and will start to return to form to reclaim the AFC North The Ravens secondary has been exposed so much and I think Burrow will have enough time to operate and have a field day against them. Lamar refuses to throw to his WR’s and this isn’t the week to start it.

Bengals ML +255 (2 units) 2 to win 3.10

Parlay of the Week: (1 unit) 1 to win 12.30

Vikings -7

Jaguars -7

Eagles vs Cards OVER 49.5

Bengals vs Ravens OVER 48.5