It's Not Your Fault: Stinkymetrics
At long last... I present Stinkymetrics.
Stinkymetrics is simple. It is a historical analysis that shows a team's expected chance to win in a given week based on the points scored by the team in the given week. It follows that if a team scored the most points in the week, there was a 100% chance of victory for the team in that week. If a team scored the least, 0% chance to win. Everything in between is prorated. Stinkymetrics aggregates the probabilities of victory to show what a team's record "should" be based on performance relative to the whole league over the course of the season.
Over the very long term, the best team will win. BUT, in a small sample size, such as a 13 week fantasy football season, there is substantial "luck" involved in the scheduling. Think Vegas - the House always wins over the long term, but a player can get hot and beat the odds for a short period of time.
I put this together last year but never hit publish. Refreshed the analysis for 2016 primarily because I wanted to prove out that I've gotten boned this year by my schedule. Let's look at some takeaways:
My team is modestly unlucky, but pales in comparison to our man Tony. Per usual, Tony has faced a brutal schedule. He should be at least 3-2 and probably 4-1, with Week 4 as the only should-be loss.
Squid is right on Tony's heels in terms of getting hosed, but it's primarily because of his massive Week 1 and Week 4. It's feast or famine for the Squidman.
Sean's team is certainly stellar, but the record is perhaps inflated by a game. Solid, consistent, above average every week.
Parker is running away in the lead in luck, but I suspect this will come back to reasonable levels. Making it through the first four weeks intact was huge. Week 5 was his first week with a greater than 50% chance of winning, and yet he's somehow 3-2.
For those keeping an eye on the division race, the Aardvark division has collectively gotten screwed. Should have 2 more wins than we currently do.
We'll publish Stinkymetrics again after Week 10.
